Investing.com – The dollar was flat against its rivals Thursday, shrugging off falling U.S. bond yields on upbeat economic data, though strength in the euro will put a nail in the greenback’s resilience, experts say.
The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, fell by 0.08% to 91.60, after hitting a low of 91.49.
The greenback has been moving in tandem with treasury yields, but though the 10-year Treasury fell sharply to its lowest level since Mar. 11, it didn’t trigger the slump that many would expect in the wake upbeat economic data suggesting the recovery is well on track.
The Commerce Department said on Thursday that retail sales rose 9.8% last month. That was well above economists’ forecast for a 5.9% rise. The retail sales control group – which has a larger impact on U.S. GDP – rose 6.9% beating expectations for a 6.3% rise.
“The combo of stimulus checks, good weather and the reopening propelled retail sales 9.8% m/m in March. This is second largest monthly gain on record, eclipsed only by last May’s 18.3% increase,” Jefferies (NYSE:JEF) said.
The labor market backdrop, meanwhile, appears to be improving following last week’s better-than-expected nonfarm payrolls report.
U.S. jobless claims fell to 576,000 last week from 769,000 the prior week, a much larger decline the 700,000 expected.
A recovery in the euro has also weighed on the greenback – a trend which some expect to continue as Europe ramps-up its vaccination process.
“As vaccination in Europe is set to gain pace and eurozone activity is poised to level up with the US in the second half of the year, the less diverse and more synchronized recovery should weigh on the USD,” ING said in a ntoe.
EUR/USD was flat at $1.1976. but ING said it expects eurodollar to “move above 1.20 on a persistent basis this quarter as the eurozone economy starts to catch up with the US.”
Dollar Flat, Shrugs Off Slide in Bond Yields, But Euro Strength a Risk
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