Injury accidents in 2021–2025 and school locations.
ImpactScan
Safe routes to school
in Saxony
Download ImpactScan PDFWhat impact can investment in safe routes to school in Saxony have?
The analysis examines spatially concentrated accident hotspots near schools in Saxony. The connection to school travel is used to select relevant road areas; all injury accidents at each identified hotspot are assessed.
Key finding
Every euro invested is associated with EUR 4.65 in avoided societal accident costs.
Key finding for investment in 50 accident hotspots, with an estimated investment volume of EUR 6.25 million.
Top 50 Hotspots
The map shows the 50 accident hotspots prioritised by societal costs. Each point represents a 25-metre cluster; these sites are not officially designated accident blackspots.
Saxony · Top 50
Select a point, then use + to zoom in. Click or tap a point to view site details.
Map base: boundary of the Free State of Saxony, GeoSN. Point coordinates: ImpactScan workbook, top 50 sites ranked by accident costs.
What does the analysis examine?
The analysis identifies accident hotspots, prioritises them by historical monetised costs and estimates the potential of suitable road safety interventions across portfolios. The intervention, feasibility, responsibility for road infrastructure and actual costs must be assessed on site for each location.
Within 500 metres; at least one event on a weekday during hour 6, 7 or 8.
25-metre clusters; each event is assigned to a single site.
At least five injury accidents within a rolling three-year window.
identified analytically; not officially designated
at these hotspots, 2021–2025
EUR million, over five years
of modelled accident costs
Monetisation uses the BASt cost values documented in the research project on updating the cost and valuation parameters of the Federal Transport Infrastructure Plan, commissioned by the Federal Ministry for Digital and Transport.
Methodology and limitations
The 2021 BASt cost values are approximately adjusted to June 2026 prices using the consumer price index. The 2026 values are model estimates, not official BASt accident cost rates for 2026.
Data basis
Georeferenced Accident Atlas data for 2021–2025; only police-recorded injury accidents. Property-damage-only accidents are excluded.
Impact
A 25% reduction in injury accidents is a transfer value within the range of controlled evaluations (19 to 28%). A UDV evaluation in Münster found 24% at 63 accident blackspots, but without adjustment for regression to the mean. The workbook tests 20% and 30% as sensitivity assumptions.
Costs
EUR 125,000 per hotspot is a portfolio average derived from a Berlin intervention programme and adjusted to 2026 prices. It is not a site-specific cost estimate.
Uncertainty
Historically high accident counts may partly decline even without an intervention.
Downloads and sources
The publication-ready report and accompanying Excel workbook are available to download here.
PDF reportDownload ImpactScan PDFExcel workbookDownload Excel workbook
Calculations, key figures, sources and sensitivities.
Statistical Offices of the Federation and the LänderAccident Atlas / Open DataOpen sourceFree State of SaxonySaxony school databaseOpen sourceFederal Ministry of TransportCost and valuation parameters of the Federal Transport Infrastructure PlanOpen sourceGerman Insurers Accident Research (UDV)Road safety in MünsterOpen sourceBerlin Senate DepartmentConstruction of pedestrian crossing facilitiesOpen sourceFederal Highway Research Institute (BASt)MaKaU – catalogue of measures to address accident clustersOpen source
Contact
PublisherValuePolitics GmbH
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01156 Dresden
Germany
Responsible editorMathias Bernd Weilandt
Media and researchpresse@valuepolitics.comEnquiries about the analysiskontakt@valuepolitics.comfor journalistic and editorial content pursuant to section 18(2) of the German Interstate Media Treaty (MStV)